Comparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in Amazonas, a Brazilian setting with high levels of hybrid immunity (preprint)

ABSTRACT The SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) Delta and Omicron spread globally during mid and late 2021, respectively, with variable impact according to the immune population landscape. In this study, we compare the dissemination dynamics of these VOCs in the Amazonas state, one of Brazil’s most heavily affected regions. We sequenced the virus genome from 4,128 patients collected in Amazonas between July 1st, 2021 and January 31st, 2022 and investigated the lineage replacement dynamics using a phylodynamic approach. The VOCs Delta and Omicron displayed similar patterns of phylogeographic spread but significantly different epidemic dynamics. The Delta and Omicron epidemics were fueled by multiple introduction events, followed by the successful establishment of a few local transmission lineages of considerable size that mainly arose in the Capital, Manaus. The VOC Omicron spread and became dominant much faster than the VOC Delta. We estimate that under the same epidemiological conditions, the average Re of Omicron was ∼3.3 times higher than that of Delta and the average Re of the Delta was ∼1.3 times higher than that of Gamma. Furthermore, the gradual replacement of Gamma by Delta occurred without an upsurge of COVID-19 cases, while the rise of Omicron fueled a sharp increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection. The Omicron wave displayed a shorter duration and a clear decoupling between the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths compared with previous (B.1.* and Gamma) waves in the Amazonas state. These findings suggest that the high level of hybrid immunity (infection plus vaccination) acquired by the Amazonian population by mid-2021 was able to limit the spread of the VOC Delta and was also probably crucial to curb the number of severe cases, although not the number of VOC Omicron new infections.

Identification of SARS-CoV-2 P.1-related lineages in Brazil provides new insights about the mechanisms of emergence of Variants of Concern (preprint)

One of the most remarkable features of the SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOC) is the unusually large number of mutations they carry. However, the specific factors that drove the emergence of such variants since the second half of 2020 are not fully resolved. In this study, we described a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage provisionally designated as P.1-like-II that, as well as the previously described lineage P.1-like-I, shares several lineage-defining mutations with the VOC P.1 circulating in Brazil. Reconstructions of P.1 ancestor sequences demonstrate that the entire constellation of mutations that define the VOC P.1 did not accumulate within a single long-term infected individual, but was acquired by sequential addition during interhost transmissions. Our evolutionary analyses further estimate that P.1-ancestors strains carrying half of the P.1-lineage-defining mutations, including those at the receptor-binding domain of the Spike protein, circulated cryptically in the Amazonas state since August 2020. This evolutionary pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that partial human population immunity acquired from natural SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first half of 2020 might have been the major driving force behind natural selection that allowed VOCs' emergence and worldwide spread. These findings also support a long lag-time between the emergence of variants with key mutations of concern and expansion of the VOC P.1 in Brazil.

The Emergence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant P.1 in Amazonas (Brazil) Was Temporally Associated with a Change in the Age and Gender Profile of COVID-19 Mortality (preprint)

Background: Since the end of 2020, there has been a great deal of international concern about the variants of SARS-COV-2 B.1.1.7, identified in the United Kingdom; B.1.351 discovered in South Africa and P.1, originating from the Brazilian state of Amazonas. The three variants were associated with an increase in transmissibility and worsening of the epidemiological situation in the places where they expanded. The lineage B.1.1.7 was associated with the increase in case fatality rate in the United Kingdom. There are still no studies on the case fatality rate of the other two variants. The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality profile before and after the emergence of the P.1 strain in the Amazonas state.Methods: We analyzed data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, SIVEP-Gripe (Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe), comparing two distinct epidemiological periods: during the peak of the first wave, between April and May 2020, and in January 2021 (the second wave), the month in which the new variant came to predominate. We calculated mortality rates, overall case fatality rate and case fatality rate among hospitalized patients; all rates were calculated by age and gender and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were determined.Findings: We observed that in the second wave there were a higher incidence and an increase in the proportion of cases of COVID-19 in the younger age groups. There was also an increase in the proportion of women among Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) cases from 40% (2,709) in the first wave to 47% (2,898) in the second wave and in the proportion of deaths due to COVID-19 between the two periods varying from 34% (1,051) to 47% (1,724), respectively. In addition, the proportion of deaths among people between 20 and 59 years old has increased in both sexes. The case fatality rate among those hospitalized in the population between 20 and 39 years old during the second wave was 2.7 times the rate observed in the first wave (female rate ratio = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.9-3.9], p <0.0001; male rate ratio = 2.70, 95%CI:2.0-3.7), and in the general population the rate ratios were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.1-1.2) in females and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.7-0.8) in males].Interpretation: Based on this prompt analysis of the epidemiological scenario in the Amazonas state, the observed changes in the pattern of mortality due to COVID-19 between age groups and gender simultaneously with the emergence of the P.1 strain suggest changes in the pathogenicity and virulence profile of this new variant. Further studies are needed to better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 variants profile and their impact for the health population.Funding: There was no funding for this study.Declaration of Interest: None to declare.

Effectiveness of CoronaVac among healthcare workers in the setting of high SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant transmission in Manaus, Brazil: A test-negative case-control study (preprint)

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, Gamma, emerged in the city of Manaus in late 2020 during a large resurgence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and has spread throughout Brazil. The effectiveness of vaccines in settings with widespread Gamma variant transmission has not been reported. Methods We performed a matched test-negative case-control study to estimate the effectiveness of an inactivated vaccine, CoronaVac, in healthcare workers (HCWs) in Manaus, where the Gamma variant accounted for 86% of genotyped SARS-CoV-2 samples at the peak of its epidemic. We performed an early analysis of effectiveness following administration of at least one vaccine dose and an analysis of effectiveness of the two-dose schedule. The primary outcome was symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Findings For the early at-least-one-dose and two-dose analyses the study population was, respectively, 53,176 and 53,153 HCWs residing in Manaus and aged 18 years or older, with complete information on age, residence, and vaccination status. Among 53,153 HCWs eligible for the two-dose analysis, 47,170 (89%) received at least one dose of CoronaVac and 2,656 individuals (5%) underwent RT-PCR testing from 19 January, 2021 to 13 April, 2021. Of 3,195 RT-PCR tests, 885 (28%) were positive. 393 and 418 case- control pairs were selected for the early and two-dose analyses, respectively, matched on calendar time, age, and neighbourhood. Among those who had received both vaccine doses before the RT-PCR sample collection date, the average time from second dose to sample collection date was 14 days (IQR 7-24). In the early analysis, vaccination with at least one dose was associated with a 0.50-fold reduction (adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE), 49.6%, 95% CI 11.3 to 71.4) in the odds of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the period 14 days or more after receiving the first dose. However, we estimated low effectiveness (adjusted VE 36.8%, 95% CI -54.9 to 74.2) of the two-dose schedule against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the period 14 days or more after receiving the second dose. A finding that vaccinated individuals were much more likely to be infected than unvaccinated individuals in the period 0-13 days after first dose (aOR 2.11, 95% CI 1.36-3.27) suggests that unmeasured confounding led to downward bias in the vaccine effectiveness estimate. Interpretation Evidence from this test-negative study of the effectiveness of CoronaVac was mixed, and likely affected by bias in this setting. Administration of at least one vaccine dose showed effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the setting of epidemic Gamma variant transmission. However, the low estimated effectiveness of the two-dose schedule underscores the need to maintain non-pharmaceutical interventions while vaccination campaigns with CoronaVac are being implemented. Funding Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz); Municipal Health Secretary of Manaus Research in Context Evidence before this study We searched PubMed for articles published from inception of the pandemic until April 3, 2021, with no language restrictions, using the search terms “P.1” AND “vaccine” AND “SARS-CoV-2”. Additionally, we searched for “CoronaVac” AND “SARS-CoV-2”. Early studies have found plasma from convalescent COVID-19 patients and sera from vaccinated individuals have reduced neutralisation of the SARS-CoV-2 variant, Gamma or P.1, compared with strains isolated earlier in the pandemic. Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA, Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1, and CoronaVac are the only vaccines for which such data has been published to date. No studies reported effectiveness of any vaccine on reducing the risk of infection or disease among individuals exposed to P.1 or in settings of high P.1 transmission. Added value of this study This study finds that vaccination with CoronaVac was 49.4% (95% CI 13.2 to 71.9) effective at preventing COVID-19 in a setting with likely high prevalence of the Gamma Variant of Concern. However, an analysis of effectiveness by dose was underpowered and failed to find significant effectiveness of the two-dose schedule of CoronaVac (estimated VE 37.1%, 95% CI -53.3 to 74.2). Implications of all the available evidence These findings are suggestive for the effectiveness of CoronaVac in healthcare workers in the setting of widespread P.1 transmission but must be strengthened by observational studies in other settings and populations. Based on this evidence, there is a need to implement sustained non-pharmaceutical interventions even as vaccination campaigns continue.

The ongoing evolution of variants of concern and interest of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil revealed by convergent indels in the amino (N)-terminal domain of the Spike protein (preprint)

Mutations at both the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and the amino (N)-terminal domain (NTD) of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein can alter its antigenicity and promote immune escape. We identified that SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Brazil with mutations of concern in the RBD independently acquired convergent deletions and insertions in the NTD of the S protein, which altered the NTD antigenic-supersite and other predicted epitopes at this region. These findings support that the ongoing widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil is generating new viral lineages that might be more resistant to neutralization than parental variants of concern.

Antibody evasion by the Brazilian P.1 strain of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Terminating the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic relies upon pan-global vaccination. Current vaccines elicit neutralizing antibody responses to the virus spike derived from early isolates. However, new strains have emerged with multiple mutations: P.1 from Brazil, B.1.351 from South Africa and B.1.1.7 from the UK (12, 10 and 9 changes in the spike respectively). All have mutations in the ACE2 binding site with P.1 and B.1.351 having a virtually identical triplet: E484K, K417N/T and N501Y, which we show confer similar increased affinity for ACE2. We show that, surprisingly, P.1 is significantly less resistant to naturally acquired or vaccine induced antibody responses than B.1.351 suggesting that changes outside the RBD impact neutralisation. Monoclonal antibody 222 neutralises all three variants despite interacting with two of the ACE2 binding site mutations, we explain this through structural analysis and use the 222 light chain to largely restore neutralization potency to a major class of public antibodies.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Associated Factors in Manaus, Brazil: Baseline Results from the DETECTCoV-19 Cohort Study (preprint)

Background: Manaus located in the Brazilian rainforest has twice experienced a health system collapse due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, little is known about which groups among the general population have been more affected. Methods: A convenience sampling strategy via online advertising recruited 3046 adults. Sociodemographic characteristics, COVID-19-related symptoms, COVID-19 testing, self-medication and prescribed medications were recorded. Serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies were measured with an ELISA. Prevalence ratios (PR) were obtained using cluster-corrected and adjusted Poisson’s regression models.Results: A crude positivity rate among asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, was estimated at 29.10%, with a maximum seroprevalence of 41.53% corrected by test characteristics and an antibody decay rate of 27%. Regression models demonstrated a strong association towards marginalized low-income and vulnerable residents with limited health access. Presence of a COVID-19 case (PR 1.39, 1.24-1.57) or death (PR 2.14, 1.74-2.62) in a household increased greatly the risk of other household members acquiring infection. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was higher among those who self-medicated to prevent infection (PR 1.36, 1.27-1.46). Conclusions: A disproportionate social and economic disparity was observed among the study participants. The syndemic nature of COVID-19 in the Amazon region needs differential policies and urgent solutions to control the ongoing pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence and Associated Factors in Manaus, Brazil: Baseline Results from the DETECTCoV-19 Cohort Study (preprint)

Background: Twice city of Manaus located in the Brazilian rainforest, has experienced a health system collapse due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, little is known about which groups among the general population have been more affected. In this report, we present the overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated factors from the DETECTCoV-19 cohort. Methods: A convenience sampling strategy via online advertising recruited 3046 adults. Sociodemographic characteristics, COVID-19-related symptoms, COVID-19 testing, self-medication and prescribed medications were recorded. Serum anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid IgG antibodies were measured with an in-house ELISA. Prevalence ratios (PR) were obtained using cluster-corrected and adjusted Poisson’s regression models. Findings: A crude positivity rate among asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals, was estimated at 29·10%, with a maximum seroprevalence of 41·53% corrected by test characteristics and an antibody decay rate of 27%. Regression models demonstrated a strong association towards marginalized low-income and vulnerable residents with limited health access. Presence of a COVID-19 case (PR 1·39, 1·24-1·57) or death (PR 2·14, 1·74-2·62) in a household increased greatly the risk of other household members acquiring infection. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was higher among those who self-medicated to prevent infection (PR 1·36, 1·27-1·46). Interpretation: High SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity reveals a much burdensome scenario than estimations based on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Manaus. Overall, prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody response demonstrated a disproportionate social and economic disparity among the study participants. The syndemic nature of COVID-19 in the Amazon region needs differential policies and urgent solutions to control the pandemic. Funding: Research was funded by Ministry of Education (MEC), Brazil. BBS, IVPF, ROS, ARCB and WBSS received scholarship from CAPES. DSSS, TBNM, MFF and NOC received scholarship from FAPEAMDeclaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: The research ethics committee of Federal University of Amazonas (UFAM) approved this study (CAAE:34906920·4·0000·5020) in accordance with Brazilian law